‘Failing to prepare is preparing to fail’
–John Wooden
People love drafting with me. I come prepared. In a draft that takes anywhere from 3 to 4 hours, many of the drafters are dying to get out of there, back to wives, kids, life…leaving ‘fantasy’ to get back to reality (I know, I don’t get it either). Anything that makes the draft move along swiftly is appreciated by the masses. I am one of the ‘anythings’. Each one of my picks takes about .5 seconds to make. I come prepared.
People hate drafting with me. I come prepared. I know who I want, when I want them, and how my team will shape up (for the most part) by the time I leave that room. I always leave the draft with a formidable roster. I come prepared.
A few years ago I was in Las Vegas for the World Championship of Fantasy Football. There were about 60 drafts of 12 teams each, all taking place simultaneously in the same room. Each group of 12 has a few draft moderators who oversee the draft, including placing cute little color coded name tags on the draft board as each player is selected. Anyway, these moderators, after observing a few rounds of the draft, began chuckling at my behavior. See, these other random dudes (or pairs of dudes) at my draft table, when it was their turn to select a player, would be all over the place. Some would be calling their partner, some would be ruffling through magazines, some would be panicking, some would be sweating. I, on the other hand, was sitting in my chair, laid back, staring around the room, patiently waiting to say the name of my next selection when called upon, because I already know who that player was going to be. Not calling anyone, not looking at papers, not panicking, not sweating…fine, maybe sweating…it is the fucking desert. The moderators found this funny, and I totally get it from their point of view. Everyone else is freaking out over every pick, and this one dick looks like he couldn’t give a shit, but yet knows exactly who and what he wants every single time. They probably would’ve found it even funnier if they knew that I had taken ecstasy the night before, danced on tables, and still hadn’t gone to bed yet. I come prepared.
So what’s the point here? I’m glad you asked. I decided to share the madness of my preparation. We’re going to look into my sick brain to find out what I’m thinking as one of my drafts approaches.
The draft in question is the Fantasy Football Players Championship. This is a high-stakes league with a grand prize of $200,000. Each league is 12 teams, 20 man rosters. I am fortunate enough to be selecting 1st overall. The starting lineup is 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF, 2 FLEX(non-QB). It is a PPR (point per reception) league, but Tight Ends are 1.5PPR, making them more valuable than usual. It is 4PTS for a passing TD.
Some overall thoughts before breaking it down:
-I’m trying to win my 12 team league of course, but the big goal here is to beat 600+ teams and win the grand prize. Need a solid mix of reliable studs and long shots that may break out.
-There aren’t too many late RBs or WRs I’m psyched about.
-I love Matt Stafford.
-Tight End is crazy deep this year.
-There are 23 great to elite WRs…I want to draft 3 of them.
-I always leave selecting my team defense until the very end, but have a gut feeling that Pitt is going to be more dominant than usual this year.
Of course we never know what will actually happen on draft day. There are always twists and turns that force some decisions on the fly, but I’ll be ready. I come prepared.
Since I have the 1st pick, after Round 1 we will analyze the draft 2 picks at a time, as I always select back to back.
Pick 1
Ray Rice. My #1 player on the board (obviously). Love starting my team with a safe option who has a very high floor, with upside.
Picks 24/25
I want a minimum of 1 WR. Some teams will start with 3RBs in a row in this format, but I don’t want to be ‘forced’ into picking position X later in the draft when position Y may present the best value at that point. I like having flexibility.
I want 2 of my top 8 WRs. Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings.
If only 1 of the 8 are available (which I believe will be the case), then I will take a RB, namely Peyton Hillis or Felix Jones. I will consider Antonio Gates or JerMichael Finley here as well because of the weighted Tight End format, but since TE is deep, I will probably let them slide.
If none of my top 8 are left, I will select Wes Welker. He’s a lock for 90 receptions, with the potential for 120. The only reason I am not definitely taking him here along with 1 of my top 8 is because there is an outside chance he is still on the board the next time I select. I will pair Welker with either Hillis or Felix.
Picks 48/49
I have a few options here, and this will shape how I approach the rest of the draft. I prefer the value and talent of the WRs at this spot, so will lean towards them unless I somehow land 2 of my top 8 at 24/25.
If I already have Rice/WR/WR, I will look for RB/WR at this turn.
If I already have Rice/WR/RB, I will look for WR/WR at this turn.
If I already have Rice/WR/RB, and all of my top 23 WRs are gone(see above), I will look for RB/RB at this turn.
RBs I like at this spot that have a chance to be available: Beanie Wells, DeAngelo Williams, Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, Mark Ingram, Ryan Mathews.
WRs I like at this spot that have a chance to be available: Anquan Boldin, Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham, Percy Harvin…and I may get lucky with a few guys I rank above this group, but don’t wanna jinx it.
Picks 72/73
Remember I mentioned a certain handsome (yeah I said it) QB that I am enamored with? Here is the spot where I will overdraft Matt Stafford. I think he finishes as a top 5 QB.
Along with Stafford:
If one of my top 23 WRs is still on the board (unlikely but possible), I will take him as my 4th WR (can start 4 each week with the 2 Flex roster).
If one of my top 23 WRs is not on the board (likely), I will take a RB, most likely from the group of Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Grant, James Starks, Mike Tolbert, BenJarvis Green-Ellis).
If I don’t love the RBs that remain, I may say ‘fuck it’ and take the top Tight End left on the board, ideally Aaron Hernandez.
Potential roster through 7 rounds:
Matt Stafford
Ray Rice
Felix Jones
Fred Jackson
Miles Austin
Anquan Boldin
Percy Harvin
At this point in the draft, I will be very, very happy. The other 11 members in my draft will be very, very frightened.
Clearly, in this scenario, I decided to let the TE position slide. As I mentioned above, TE is very deep this year. I plan on drafting 3-4 TEs in the 2nd half of the draft. All I need is 1 of them to emerge.
As for RB and WR moving forward, I have the flexibility to draft for talent and upside, regardless of position. I will make sure to draft at least 5 of each position.
Picks 96/97
I want 2 of the following players:
Nate Burleson, Antonio Brown (overdrafting him here, but I believe he can be special), Willis McGahee (at the least, he splits carries evenly in a run first offense), Jared Cook/Aaron Hernandez (start the TE selections a round earlier than planned if either are on the board), Ben Tate (if Arian goes down, we may have a stud on our hands), Danny Woodhead.
Picks 120/121
As I mentioned earlier, I NEVER take a defense early. However, I am trying to win $200,000, and sometimes one has to do things one does not normally do in order to reach certain goals. I am almost positive that Pitt will finish in the top 5 of defensive scoring. With defense being such a crapshoot from year to year, why not select what I believe to be a sure thing, rather than hope that my random selection at the end is one of the surprises this season? In order to guarantee acquiring Pitt, I will have to be the first one to select a defense, and this is the spot to do it. Am I totally sold on this strategy yet? Not at all, but what the hell. I can make it make sense.
Along with Pitt, I will most likely take my 1st TE at this spot, from the group of Greg Olsen, Lance Kendricks, Heath Miller, Jermaine Gresham.
I now have 9 selections left, and all I NEED is a kicker and a backup for Stafford, so 7 spots left to do whatever the fuck I want. At this point in the draft, it’s near impossible to predict who will be on the board at each one of my selections, considering everyone has different opinions on ‘sleepers’. So, rather than take you pick by pick, I’ll just let you know some guys I’ll be targeting.
RBs
Bernard Scott, Bilal Powell, DeMarco Murray, Delone Carter, Montario Hardesty, Kendall Hunter, Leon Washington, Roy Helu, Tashard Choice, Keiland Williams.
WRs
Andre Roberts, Arrelious Benn, Earl Bennett, Greg Little, Eric Decker, Harry Douglas, Jason Hill.
TEs
Evan Moore, Kyle Rudolph, Julius Thomas, Fred Davis, Todd Heap, Visanthe Schiancoe.
Potential roster:
Matt Stafford
Colt McCoy
Ray Rice
Felix Jones
Fred Jackson
Willis McGahee
Leon Washington
Tashard Choice
Miles Austin
Anquan Boldin
Percy Harvin
Antonio Brown
Arrelious Benn
Earl Bennett
Harry Douglas
Lance Kendricks
Todd Heap
Kyle Rudolph
Pitt Defense
Dick Kicker
When I win the $200k, I’ll refund what you had to pay to read this post.